Europe and Russia are embroiled in an escalating contest over Ukraine ‑ its direction, its stability, and its alliances. Diplomats, analysts, and EU officials are warning that the situation could worsen sharply within weeks, in an early test of Catherine Ashton's crisis management skills.
The new EU foreign policy chief will hardly have had time to get her feet under her desk on 1 December, when Ukraine dominates her computer screen. An EU-Ukraine summit three days later will mark her international debut as foreign policy high representative. Ashton's predecessor, Javier Solana of Spain, is known to be extremely "frustrated" with the worsening political, economic and security crisis in Ukraine. A fresh bout of the perennial gas war between Ukraine and Russia may break out after the new year, affecting Ukraine's bitter presidential election later in January.
Then there is Iran, Afghanistan, relations with the US, bureaucratic infighting in Brussels, non-stop travel, overseeing and fronting a new global EU diplomatic service, chairing monthly meetings of European foreign ministers as well as performing the functions of a vice-president of the European commission.
"This is an excruciating job," said the EU official who noted that Solana spent two thirds of his time travelling. Ashton's job is much more arduous since its powers and responsibilities are expanded and it combines being a de facto foreign minister with also being a commission vice-president.
The other international emergency that will test Ashton's mettle quickly is likely to be Iran. For most of the last six years, Solana and the senior EU policy strategist, Robert Cooper, have been dealing with the Iranians on behalf of Britain, France, Germany, and tacitly the Americans. It is not clear, however, whether Ashton will retain that pivotal role. "I'd be surprised if she does. There is no automaticity," said a Brussels diplomat.
"That will be a test of her authority," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "If she loses the role on Iran that will be a setback."
Inside the Brussels beltway, turf battles are already being waged between competing parts of the European bureaucracy over how to organise, staff, and control the so-called external action service, Europe's fledgling global diplomatic arm. "Ashton needs to be the engine and the figurehead for that service," said the diplomat. "It will be a brutal start," said Leonard.
Source:guardian.co.uk
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