Ukraine Power Report Q1 2010 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/ukraine-power- ..
The new Ukraine Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 7.9% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)’s regional power generation by 2014, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2009 was an estimated 2,534 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decline of 2.8% from the previous year’s level. We are forecasting
a rise in regional generation to 3,005TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 18.6%. Thermal power generation in 2009 was around 1,263TWh, accounting for 49.8% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,460TWh, implying 15.6% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 48.6% – in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 85.5TWh, or 6.8% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 6.2% of thermal generation.
For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting for 40.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 29.9%, nuclear energy at 15.5%, with oil having an 11.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,553mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 16.9% growth over the period. Ukraine’s estimated 2009 market share of 9.48% is set to ease to 9.36% by 2014. In 2009 Ukraine accounted for an estimated 25.44% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share higher at 25.49% by 2014.
Ukraine now holds seventh place above the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect that Ukraine will be able to mount a challenge for further promotion over the short to medium term, although Romania is just two points above it. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.
The report is now forecasting an average annual increase in Ukrainian real GDP of 3.6% per annum between 2010 and 2014, although the 2009 assumption is for a steep decline of 14.7%. Population is expected to contract from 45.9mn to 45.0mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 125% and 25%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 143TWh in 2009 to 176TWh by the end of the forecast period, recovering from the dramatic 2009 economic reversal. Theoretical surplus generation is expected to rise from an estimated 42TWh in 2009 to 61TWh in 2014, assuming 3.6% annual growth in electricity generation. However, the country’s transmission and distribution systems are in need of investment and maintenance, and significant quantities of generation are wasted via line losses.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 46.2%, which is towards the bottom of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 14.2% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 28.0% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 15.4% in 2009-2014 to 10.9%, representing 28.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 105% in hydro-power use during 2009- 2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 18% between 2009 and 2019, with nuclear consumption up by 55%. More detail of the long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
Source:pr-inside.com/
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