Recent signs suggest that renewed violence may be in store for eastern
Ukraine. Hot spots along the line of contact have come under heavy separatist fire in recent weeks; 58 cease-fire breaches were registered along the demarcation line on June 15, a marked rise from the 10-20 daily violations in previous months. And on June 14, a local media outlet quoted reports from Ukrainian military officials that Russia-backed separatists in Donbas had amassed 30 tanks near the strategic town of Avdiivka.
Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, tanks have been a common sight, even after the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the line of contact in February 2015. But since then, only small numbers of tanks have operated close to the demarcation line. Local media and observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe sometimes publish accounts of military vehicles in the area, but never as many as 30, which constitutes nearly an entire armored battalion. The massing of tanks at the scale described in Donbas is unusual and, if true, indicates that military action could be expected in that sector of the demarcation line.
On June 14, a local media outlet quoted reports from Ukrainian military officials that Russia-backed separatists in Donbass had amassed 30 tanks near the strategic town of Avdiivka, reports the private intelligence firm Stratfor. This large number of armored vehicles would definitely violate the Minsk accords and signal a new willingness from Moscow to re-escalate the conflict.
“Local media and observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe sometimes publish accounts of military vehicles in the area, but never as many as 30, which constitutes nearly an entire armored battalion. The massing of tanks at the scale described in Donbass is unusual and, if true, indicates that military action could be expected in that sector of the demarcation line.”
Stratfor points out that the Ukrainian military has a history of disseminating false information about the situation at the front and this information has not been independently verified. However, Ukraine has never been untruthful about this large of a deployment.
Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, tanks have been a common sight, even after the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the line of contact in February 2015. But since then, only small numbers of tanks have operated close to the demarcation line. Local media and observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe sometimes publish accounts of military vehicles in the area, but never as many as 30, which constitutes nearly an entire armored battalion. The massing of tanks at the scale described in Donbas is unusual and, if true, indicates that military action could be expected in that sector of the demarcation line.
On June 14, a local media outlet quoted reports from Ukrainian military officials that Russia-backed separatists in Donbass had amassed 30 tanks near the strategic town of Avdiivka, reports the private intelligence firm Stratfor. This large number of armored vehicles would definitely violate the Minsk accords and signal a new willingness from Moscow to re-escalate the conflict.
“Local media and observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe sometimes publish accounts of military vehicles in the area, but never as many as 30, which constitutes nearly an entire armored battalion. The massing of tanks at the scale described in Donbass is unusual and, if true, indicates that military action could be expected in that sector of the demarcation line.”
Stratfor points out that the Ukrainian military has a history of disseminating false information about the situation at the front and this information has not been independently verified. However, Ukraine has never been untruthful about this large of a deployment.
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