With more than 95 per cent of the vote counted in Ukraine’s first presidential election since the 2004 Orange Revolution, Mr Yanukovich was comfortably ahead of Ms Tymoshenko, with 35 per cent of the vote against 25 per cent.
But the result still leaves the charismatic 49-year-old Ms Tymoshenko in a position to mount a serious challenge to Mr Yanukovich, who is 59, in the February 7 run-off. With a strong campaigning style and a broad popular appeal, she is expected to have greater success than Mr Yanukovich in gathering votes from supporters of the defeated candidates.
On Sunday night, Ms Tymoshenko attacked Mr Yanukovich over his big-business backing, saying: “The majority of Ukrainian voters showed they are ready to vote for democracy, against criminal gangs and oligarchy.”
Supporters of Mr Yanukovich, the defeated candidate in the disputed 2004 election, hit back, accusing the prime minister of populism and condoning corruption.
Among the other 16 candidates, Sergei Tigipko, a banker-politician, scored the biggest success, coming third with 13 per cent, followed by Arseniy Yatseniuk, a former foreign minister, on 7 per cent. Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-west president and Orange Revolution hero, was on just 5 per cent, a humiliating decline from his triumph five years ago.
The election, which follows five years of in-fighting, was closely watched because of concerns about possible cheating, Ukraine’s fragile economy and its strategic location between Russia and the European Union.
International monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and other institutions on Sunday declared that the elections had largely met democratic standards. “Democratic standards and mechanisms have made a great step ahead and have stabilised democracy in Ukraine,” said Pawel Kowal, head of a European Parliament delegation.
Oleh Rybachuk, former chief of staff to Mr Yushchenko, said: “This is what we fought for in the Orange Revolution, free and fair elections ... It is still an open race.”
The main issue for voters in the run-off, said Mr Rybachuk, was deciding which of the two candidates could better “deliver results” on improving their living standards.
Both Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovich have pledged to pursue Ukraine’s integration with the European Union while maintaining good relations with Russia, and have promised to work with the International Monetary Fund, which is supervising Ukraine’s recession-hit economy.
They differ greatly in style, with Ms Tymoshenko relying more on her personal charisma and Mr Yanukovich more on his strong support from business. Ms Tymoshenko is branded by her critics as an unpredictable populist, despite what she sees as her efforts to handle the economic crisis in a steadfast manner.
Mr Yanukovich’s opponents see him as a creature of Ukraine’s business oligarchs and as the politician whose 2004 campaign was accused of widespread electoral fraud. But many business people are more interested in ending Ukraine’s prolonged political instability. Jorge Zukoski, director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said: “It does not matter so much who wins as ending the political stalemate.”
A western banker warned that the second round was likely “to be a lot hotter”, with far bigger risks of fraud and accusations of fraud. He said the investment community feared a possible unclear result in the run-off or a protracted legal battle could cast a new cloud of instability over the recession-battered country.
The new president’s priority will be restoring political stability and confidence in the economy and resuming co-operation with the IMF, which has suspended a $16.4bn package.
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