Ukraine voters ready to accept ‘lesser evil' Yanukovich

A mood of resignation settled on Kiev on Monday, the city that five years ago fizzed with protest against a rigged election won by Viktor Yanukovich, now Ukraine's president-in-waiting.

The beefy ex-mechanic narrowly won Sunday's election thanks to the votes of Ukraine's Russian-speaking industrial east and the frustration of the European-friendly west with a revolution turned sour.

Fiery revolutionary and glamorous prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, was silent on Monday, ignoring a call by international election monitors to accept defeat and shake hands with the victor.

But there was no sign of the street demonstrations that met Yanukovich's last victory in 2004, when tens of thousands braved sub-zero temperatures on Independence Square to protest the fraud of a sleazy post-Soviet establishment.

The euphoria of 2004 quickly turned to disappointment with the paralyzing infighting of Orange Revolution co-architects Ms. Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko, the man swept to the presidency but who proved ineffective and out of touch.

The tandem proved incapable of governing through an economic crisis that saw no improvement in living standards.

“The expectations of the people were not met,” said 72-year-old pensioner Olexiy Onash. “Many people have lost faith in what was once good.”

Like others in snow-bound Kiev, he admitted voting reluctantly for Ms. Tymoshenko out of no personal affection for the former gas tycoon but a visceral distaste for Mr. Yanukovich, a rough-hewn 59-year-old from the hard-scrabble mining region of Donetsk in the east.

“I wasn't going to vote for anyone, then I saw those drunken idiots from Donetsk, and I thought if it's him (Yanukovich), then everything will be terrible,” said Onash. “There was no option. I picked the lesser evil.”

Like Ms. Tymoshenko, Mr. Yanukovich says he wants integration with Europe. But he is seen as closer to Moscow, and was tagged the Kremlin's stooge in 2004.

Ms. Tymoshenko won 65 per cent of votes in the capital against 26 per cent for Mr. Yanukovich. But tellingly, more than 8 per cent voted against both, an option in Ukrainian elections. The election again exposed Ukraine's deep divide.

Ukrainians of Kiev harbour particular disappointment in Mr. Yushchenko, who came a humiliating fifth in the first round of the election in January.

“Our president made big mistakes. He's smart, and a good president, but he found power difficult,” said musician Ihor Rudy, 38. “Some people are probably angry that nothing got better for them,” he said. “I'm for a new generation of politicians.”

There was no talk of replaying the Orange Revolution.

“I'm sorry, but you can't have a revolution every five years,” said 28-year-old law graduate Svitlana.

“In five years, maybe those people who were for Yushchenko are disappointed in those leaders. Now, maybe the other half of Ukraine will face disappointment with the reign of Yanukovich.”

Source:theglobeandmail.com/

Ukraine’s Yanukovych Faces Challenge to Deliver Campaign Goals?

By James M. Gomez, Daryna Krasnolutska and Kateryna Choursina

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- For Viktor Yanukovych, who won Ukraine’s presidency five years after the Supreme Court threw out his first victory because of fraud, the hard part is behind him. Now the harder part begins, analysts say.

With just over 2 percentage points between Yanukovych’s 48.38 percent and rival Yulia Timoshenko’s 46.00 percent in yesterday’s vote, Yanukovych’s vow to unfreeze a $16.4 billion bailout, boost trade with the European Union and end years of political gridlock may be shelved as a battle over the election results and control over parliament looms.

“Yanukovych will face mighty challenges ahead,” said Ivan Tchakarov, an emerging-markets analyst at London-based Nomura Holdings Inc., in a note to clients today. “Timoshenko has vowed to contest the elections in court if there is proof that they have been rigged.”

Yanukovych, 59, whose base of support is in the Russian- speaking east, campaigned across the former Soviet republic to erase his reputation as a Kremlin puppet and stressed that he is as enthusiastic about the EU as Timoshenko, who drew her support from among the followers of the 2004 Orange Revolution, which she co-led with outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko. Bickering between those two former allies disappointed voters and brought decision-making to a halt.



New Image



In the last weeks of the campaign, political analysts and emerging-market economists acknowledged he was succeeding in forging a new image of a business- and export-friendly candidate who would stabilize markets and push the country out of a recession.

The small margin of victory threatens to unravel those promises, at least for the next few months as an expected court challenge runs its course and he ponders holding early parliamentary elections to oust Timoshenko from her current post as prime minister.

“The margin is insignificant and doesn’t give Yanukovych a very convincing victory,” said Yuriy Yakymenko, the head of legal and political studies at the Kiev-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies. “There will be court action now and orchestrated street demonstrations will be used as a background to this or as an element of pressure.”

Yanukovych’s quest for the presidency has been a struggle from the beginning. In 2004, when he was prime minister, he was handpicked by then-President Leonid Kuchma, the Moscow-leaning head of state, to be his successor. Vladimir Putin, who was Russian president at the time, publicly threw he support behind Yanukovych and was the first to congratulate him for his initial victory in November 2004.



Protests



Yanukovych didn’t count on the millions of demonstrators, who spent a wintry December on the streets, to challenge the results. In the end, his win was thrown out by the Supreme Court during what was later coined the Orange Revolution. His challenger, Viktor Yushchenko went on to win the presidency on promises to bring the country into the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Yanukovych, who was born in a small town near Russian- speaking Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, has never backed down on his insistence that Russian be recognized as the country’s second official language. It was one of his few campaign goals that differed from Timoshenko’s platform, and he has stressed that he would repair relations with Russia that were soured under Yushchenko.



Splintered Forces



This time around, he also moved to embrace the western part of the country as well and wooed voters with a pledge to cut taxes and attract investors to help return the economy to growth of 6 to 7 percent a year. Gross domestic product slumped about 15 percent in 2009, Ukraine’s worst recession since 1994.

During the campaign, Timoshenko tried to rally the now- splintered Orange forces behind her by warned voters that a Yanukovych win would unravel the advances by Yushchenko and Timoshenko’s government.

Her campaign also passed out pamphlets that described his jail time in 1968 on a robbery conviction and 1970 for fighting. His convictions were later wiped from his record by a court, according to his campaign statements in 2004.

The past jail time “hurts a person but it fortifies you as well,” Yanukovych said on Jan. 30 in a local television interview. “It gives you the chance to think about life, makes a person more responsible.”



Fear Subsides



Razumkov’s Yakymenko said his past life had little impact on the campaign.

“They are not afraid of his biography,” he said. “They knew all the facts and do not consider his biography as something that hampers him from being a leader.”

Yanukovych may have to wait to show the nation those qualities, analysts said. Yanukovych yesterday called on Timoshenko to step down as prime minister so he could order a new coalition in the legislature that would abide by his policies.

That most likely will not happen, analysts said, leaving him with no choice but to dissolve parliament as soon as he is inaugurated and call legislative elections for as early as May.

Still, elections “would leave the country without leadership and without an IMF program for some time,” said Dmitry Gourov, a Unicredit emerging-market economist in Vienna. “This would not be welcome.”

Source:businessweek.com

FACTBOX-Policies of Ukraine's election frontrunners

Feb 2 (Reuters) - Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko battle for the president's post in an election on Sunday that will decide the direction of the ex-Soviet state and may usher in stability.

Analysts say both Yanukovich, a 59-year-old former mechanic, and Tymoshenko, a 49-year-old one-time gas tycoon, are practical politicians who can compromise, especially with their former Soviet master, Russia.

Here is a comparison of their policies on main issues:


RUSSIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Neither is saying a choice has to be made between Russia and the rich 27-member EU next door. Both say they want to integrate with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, which deteriorated under President Viktor Yushchenko.

But Tymoshenko is seen as more enthusiastic about the EU, setting the ambitious goal of accession within five years and making frequent references to European standards.

Yanukovich has said he wants to renegotiate a gas supply deal with Russia, which set market prices for gas as of this year, but may balance that with an idea of creating a consortium with Russia's participation to manage Ukraine's pipeline system.

He has fudged his line on Russia's Black Sea Fleet stationed in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula which Ukrainian law states must leave in 2017. He says a solution will be found that will be in both countries' interests.

He has softened his line on Georgian rebel regions since his party called for their recognition as independent states, as Russia did. He repeats Russia's line that the regions are no less independent than Kosovo, recognised by most countries as an independent state but not by Serbia, to which it belonged.

Tymoshenko has said Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected -- indicating that recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is not on the cards. She notes that the constitution forbids foreign military bases on Ukrainian land.

Source:reuters.com/