Ukraine's Russian-leaning opposition leader, Viktor Yanukovych, was tonight on course to become the country's president, with exit polls indicating he had a narrow lead over his bitter rival, Yulia Tymoshenko.
Yanukovych, the villain of the 2004 Orange Revolution, appeared to be heading for a remarkable comeback. Early results suggested he had beaten Tymoshenko, the prime minister, in the presidential election.
The exit poll, by a consortium partly funded by western embassies, said Yanukovich had secured 48.7% of the vote against Tymoshenko's 45.4%. Another exit poll, by ICTV, said he won 49.8%, against 45.2%.
The result was closer than expected and Tymoshenko is certain to contest the outcome in court. The strategy could lead to months of political turmoil in Kiev, as well as demonstrations by supporters of both sides. Even before polling stations closed, Tymoshenko's aides had accused her rival of "open banditry and terrorism", complaining that her election observers were barred from 1,000 polling stations in the eastern Donetsk region. Yanukovych's Party of the Regions dismissed the claims.
Opinion was divided as to whether the Orange Revolution had failed, or whether Yanukovych's victory in an apparently free and fair election was paradoxical proof of its success. In contrast to 2004, international observers said there was no major evidence of fraud.
"I don't think the Orange Revolution failed. It was never about [Viktor] Yushchenko or Tymoshenko. It was about the kind of society in which we live," Sergiy Taran, director of the International Democracy Institute in Kiev, said tonight. "It was about freedom of choice, freedom of speech, and European integration. It wasn't a choice of political systems but of civilisations. From this point of view it worked. We now live in a democracy with political competition between candidates."
According to Taran, Yanukovych's chief task if confirmed as president will be to carry out large-scale liberal reforms to Ukraine's crisis-hit economy. "It's the only way for him to become a legitimate and popular president and to have some support in the west. All other roads lead to nothing," he said.
The outlines of the new Yanukovych era are clear. He will improve Ukraine's strained relations with the Kremlin, rule out Nato membership – a Russian bugbear – and extend the lease on Russia's Crimea-based Black Sea fleet. It expires in 2017.
At the same time he will seek friendly relations with the Obama administration. He also believes in European integration – economically if not politically. Aides reject the claim that he is a Kremlin stooge.
Yanukovych has already promised to sack Tymoshenko as prime minister. Efforts to torpedo her parliamentary coalition began last week. They are likely to continue, with Yanukovich poised to lure away members of Yuschenko's Our Ukraine political bloc, currently in Tymoshenko's government, and other minority parties.
Ukraine's outgoing president Viktor Yushchenko, who defeated Yanukovych in 2004, leaves office a deeply unpopular and divisive figure. Voting in central Kiev, Yushchenko hinted that he had refused to vote for either candidate, instead registering a protest vote "against all".
"I think Ukraine will be ashamed of its choice. But that is also democracy," he said.
One-time supporters say Yushchenko is largely to blame for the disillusionment among Orange voters that followed his inauguration in January 2005. The novelist Andrey Kurkov said the Orange Revolution "never really started".
"He didn't begin any of the reforms he promised during the revolution. He didn't change the legal system or fight corruption," he said. Instead, he pursued a divisive policy of "semi-romantic nationalism", Kurkov suggested.
Kurkov said he remained optimistic about Ukraine's future. He said the much-vaunted division between Ukraine's Russian-speaking east and Ukrainian-speaking west was exaggerated. "Since the [political] parties don't have any ideologies, they clash with each other using language as the divide," he said.
Unlike Russia, Ukraine was a democracy, Kurkov said, with a tradition of dissent stretching back centuries. "There's a big gap between the Ukrainian mentality and the Russian mentality. The anarchic movement was born in Ukraine. From the 15th and 16th century and from Cossack times there is a love of lack of control.
"The Russians always elect a tsar to adore, and to expect presents from him. The Ukrainians because of individualism and egoism will elect a hetman [a Cossack military commander] and destroy him later. I'm quite happy because whoever is chosen today will be hated tomorrow by the majority of the country."
Kurkov, the author of Death and the Penguin and other best-selling comic novels set in the post-Soviet Union, said he had voted somewhat grudgingly for Tymoshenko. In the first round he had snubbed her and voted for Sergey Tigipko, who came third. Of Yanukovych, he said: "He doesn't speak Russian or Ukrainian. He doesn't speak full stop. It's embarrassing."
If confirmed as the winner, Yanukovych will stand out among European leaders because of his criminal record. As well as allegedly fixing the 2004 election, he was convicted in his youth of robbery and sexual assault. He served a second prison term for manslaughter.
Allies say that Yanukovych has since embarked on a redemptive personal journey. However, he has refused to admit that he used fraud in the presidential election five years ago – despite the fact that a Yanukovych team was uncovered hacking into the central election committee's computer.
Source:guardian.co.uk/
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