Ukraine-Russia Relations Still Unclear

KIEV, Ukraine -- As soon as his challenger had dropped a legal battle to block his inauguration this week, Ukrainian President-elect Viktor Yanukovych got a call from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. According to the Kremlin, the two men agreed that Mr. Yanukovych would visit Moscow in early March.

But Mr. Yanukovych's aides would neither confirm nor deny Sunday anything about such a visit, even though his Web site posted the Kremlin announcement. Hanna Herman, a close confidant, said the president-elect's first priority was to form a new government and deal with domestic problems.

The call from the Kremlin Saturday signals Russia's interest in reasserting a preferential relationship with its former Soviet neighbor. Yet the coy reaction in Kiev leaves it unclear which way Mr. Yanukovych will tilt Ukraine, a country of 46 million people wedged between Russia and the West.

Ukraine embraced a Western agenda after the 2004 Orange Revolution, when mass protests alleging electoral fraud overturned Mr. Yanukovych's tainted victory in that year's presidential election. Viktor Yushchenko won the revote and antagonized the Kremlin, which had openly backed Mr. Yanukovych, by trying to take Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and supporting Georgia during its 2008 war with Russia.

During the recent campaign, the Kremlin played no favorite and Mr. Yanukovych straddled the fence, calling for good relations with Russia and the European Union. Ms. Herman had indicated that his first presidential trip abroad could be to Brussels.

The question of Mr. Yanukovych's foreign policy priorities could complicate his effort to form a majority in parliament and replace Yulia Tymoshenko, his bitter rival in the presidential race, as prime minister.

Ms. Tymoshenko dropped her court challenge to the results of the Feb. 7 election Saturday, clearing the way for Mr. Yanukovych's inauguration on Thursday. She said there was no point pursuing the case after the Supreme Administrative Court refused to consider evidence she presented alleging vote falsification in favor of her opponent, who won by a margin of 3.48%.

As the political struggle turns to parliament, Mr. Yanukovych's opposition Party of Regions is trying to persuade two parties in Ms. Tymoshenko's fragile coalition to switch allegiance and oust her as prime minister.

One of those parties, Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc, is divided; its many nationalist supporters in western Ukraine are wary of Mr. Yanukovych because he has shown himself willing to take Russia's positions into account.

In interviews with Russian journalists last week, Mr. Yanukovych said he would not pursue NATO membership for Ukraine and would consider prolonging the basing of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian soil. The Kremlin also wants Ukraine to join a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, a step that could impede Ukraine's talks on a trade agreement with the European Union.

Ms. Tymoshenko met with Our Ukraine lawmakers last week in an attempt to persuade them to stick with her coalition.

If Mr. Yanukovych fails to form a majority, he has said he would call early parliamentary elections. That prospect would prolong political uncertainty and further damage Ukraine's economy, which shrank by 15% last year.

Source:online.wsj.com/